DES MOINES, Iowa ? For seven long and mostly lonely months, Rick Santorum has been less than an afterthought in the Republican presidential race.
During all those televised GOP debates, he was the clean-cut, vaguely familiar-looking guy standing at the far end of the stage, barely in the frame. His most memorable lines came in the form of whiny complaints about being ignored by the moderators.
Throughout the fall and early winter, Santorum hovered between 2 and 3 per cent in national polls. Only a month ago, he was so desperate to be noticed he jumped at the chance to participate in that ill-conceived Donald Trump vanity debate.
And yet, in the closing hours before Tuesday?s Iowa caucuses, we are led to believe there?s a Santorum wave cresting in the Hawkeye State.
Readers of the Des Moines Register awoke to a front-page story Sunday declaring Santorum ?has a clear shot at victory? and now sits at the top of the Iowa pack with Mitt Romney and libertarian Ron Paul.
In a poll taken over four days, Santorum?s support doubled in the final two days in which voters were surveyed ? suggesting Iowans are breaking late his way.
?Few saw this bombshell coming,? Republican strategist David Polyansky told the newspaper.
Really? This is the same Republican campaign that has seen one-time back-of-the-packers like Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Herman Cain slingshot unexpectedly into the lead.
It?s the same Republican race that gave Texas Gov. Rick Perry his Icarus-like moment in the sun before a spectacular crash and burn.
So why shouldn?t Santorum have his turn?
The 53-year-old former Pennsylvania senator has certainly paid his dues. He?s held 250 campaign events in Iowa this year ? more than any of his rivals. Lacking the funds for a pimped-up touring bus, Santorum has criss-crossed the state in his campaign manager?s earthy pickup truck.
Going ?all in? in Iowa was Santorum?s only viable strategy, really, but it also happened to be a smart one.
Iowans value candidates who embrace retail politicking and ? in a campaign season that has seen other candidates eschew baby-kissing rope lines in favour of TV advertising ? Santorum has boosted his recognition the hard way.
Bachmann aside, Santorum is arguably the most socially conservative candidate in the race. A self-described ?full spectrum conservative,? he is staunchly anti-abortion and favours an amendment to the U.S. Constitution banning gay marriage.
All of this plays well with the evangelical base of Iowa Republicans, who in the past have boosted the unlikely presidential campaigns of Mike Huckabee and Pat Robertson.
Santorum, for his part, likens himself to ?the guy at the dance hall? in high school that girls ignore in favour of more attractive boys.
?The girls come in and take a fling with the guy that may have the better hair or, you know, a flashier suit,? he told Fox News. ?But they want to go home with ?Steady Eddie,? the guy that can deliver and has the experience and the track record of being able to deliver conservative ideas.?
Can?t fault Santorum for spinning roses out of a campaign that?s been stuck in the thorn bushes since summer.
Still, a healthy dose of skepticism is in order when assessing Santorum?s long-term prospects.
Santorum has little money and no campaign organization to speak of outside of Iowa, so he?ll have to scramble to turn a good showing here into lasting success in future primaries.
He casts himself as the most electable of the non-Mitt Romney Republican candidates, yet his own political history says otherwise.
After serving two terms in the U.S. Senate, he lost his 2006 re-election bid by 18 points ? largely because independent voters in Pennsylvania concluded his style was too divisive and dogmatically conservative.
Moreover, it?s hard for Santorum to make the case he?s the Republican most capable of defeating President Barack Obama when GOP voters only turned to him after cycling through every other anybody-but-Romney candidate.
The Massachusetts governor, ironically, could benefit most from a stronger-than-expected Santorum showing.
Romney?s popularity has stabilized in Iowa at about 25 per cent and the crowds attending his events have been growing larger and more enthusiastic.
To win in Iowa, Romney needs conservative votes to fracture several different ways ? between Paul, Perry and Gingrich, for starters.
Santorum?s surge ? unless it becomes a tidal wave ? may simply carve up the conservative vote a little more.
If Romney can emerge from Iowa with a second-place finish to Paul or Santorum ? or beat them both ? he?ll head into friendlier New Hampshire with a substantial advantage.
?I don?t think you can predict who?s going to win in Iowa. It?s a state where you don?t know who?s going to come to the caucus and how they?ll finally make up their minds,? Romney told MSNBC. ?I?m not planning on being disappointed.?
His confidence aside, Romney has this much correct. At this late stage, the only thing predictable about the GOP race is its unpredictability.
Right now, Santorum is the wild card being played from deep in the Republican deck.
? Copyright (c) Postmedia News
Source: http://feeds.canada.com/~r/canwest/F75/~3/AowyhvEULuQ/story.html
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